Scenario:

• Created a new cloud project into which I wanted to deploy an existing bit of code (a new staging service for an existing production system for testing)
• Right-click Publish… and after a few seconds of thinking deploy fails with NullReferenceException (Object reference not set to an instance of an object exception) and reports of a fatal error but no other diagnostic information

Problem was that the existing service had an HTTPS endpoint defined using a certificate that I’d not uploaded to my brand-new staging service. Deleting the endpoint (or uploading the certificate) does the trick.